OFM_Dept_0622 - Weather - SWEST - FINAL_DEPT 5 / 20 / 22 5 : 48 PM Page 1 same slope . Florida , for example , hasn’t had a whole lot , other than Hurricane Michael . … It has been Louisiana and even New England and the Northeast , W E A T H E R they’ve been the ones dealing with several threats just based on the patterns . ” Cyclical weather patterns independent from hur - ricanes not only act as additional factors influencing storm intensity and development , but also can throw seemingly steady forecasts for a loop . And there is some “ frankly , not good news ” on that front that Weathering Floridians should be mindful of . “ It was looking like we were going to be in between El Niño and La Niña , which may make for the Storm an average season , but the latest indications in the s officials at the National last few months are that we are quickly — even quicker With an above - Hurricane Center ( NHC ) than expected — trending toward a La Niña , ” Shields A continue to contemplate an says . “ La Niña means more hurricanes and stronger active Atlantic earlier beginning to the official Atlantic hurricanes , because it means less wind shear : You hurricane season hurricane season and 2022 looking to be don’t have those winds coming across the storm that predicted for this another year of above - average atmo - kind of knock them apart or prevent them from spheric activity , it’s tempting to prema - developing . " year , preparing for turely panic . Predictions are , of course , not guarantees , just as the worst can actually But even with 2021 being the third - most active — and a storm can develop before or after the official hurri - third costliest — year for hurricanes on record , local meteo - offer the best peace cane season , a period designated as such based on rologist Brian Shields points out that “ there was not even historical averages rather than a staunchly defined of mind . any really big threat for the Florida peninsula ” last year , and chronology . In fact , the past few years have seen trop - By Madeleine Maccar that a proliferation of storms doesn’t mean they’ll become ical disturbances develop in May , which is what impactful developments for the state . prompted NOAA officials last year to explore the “ We’re definitely looking at an above - average season , but that doesn’t tell us what’s going to hit land or possibility of implementing an earlier start to the not , ” the WFTV Channel 9 weather forecaster says . officially designated hurricane season . A season predicted to be more active than usual is expected to exceed the 30 - year average of 14 named One departure from precedent that started last storms , seven hurricanes and three major ones , the latter of which is defined as a catastrophically damaging year resumed for 2022 when the NHC issued its Category 3 , 4 or 5 storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph . first tropical - weather outlook May 15 , noting that While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) official predictions were made it didn’t anticipate any developing disturbances in after press time , according to a long - range forecast released by Colorado State University in April , early the Atlantic basin within the next five days . Typi - projections indicate that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season , which officially runs from June 1 through Nov . cally , the Florida - based division of the NOAA and 30 , is expected to see 19 named storms and nine total hurricanes , with four expected to reach or exceed National Weather Service dedicated to tracking and Category 3 . predicting the region’s tropical weather systems “ We anticipate that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above - normal activity . … Sea begins making those four - times - a - day outlook surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average , while reports closer to June but weather trends nudged Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal , ” the April 7 report the start day into mid - May . stated . “ We anticipate an above - average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental “ To provide more consistent information on the United States coastline and in the Caribbean . As is the case with all hurricane seasons , coastal residents are potential for late May and early June systems , NHC reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them . ” will now begin the routine issuance of the Atlantic It is important to remember that an Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m . EDT on May above - average season doesn’t necessarily 15 , ” the weather - tracker announced in a statement doom the region to landfall storms , just as last year . an unusually quiet season shouldn’t lull those Weather’s inherent unpredictability com - historically in the path of destruction into a pounded by every year bearing new evidence of its false sense of security . Anomalies happen , capacity for ruin should be strong encouragement to as Shields recalls that the singularly devas - take the threat of hurricanes seriously , especially since tating Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 current societal factors could potentially complicate storm that formed in the “ significantly below disaster recovery and muddle its timeline . average ” 1992 season . “ Last year was such a devastating season for “ Sometimes you can have a so - called Louisiana , which is a reminder for all of us , no matter ‘ quiet season ’ and there’s not a lot of named where we are , to make sure we’re prepared ahead of storms , but then you get one bad storm time — especially in this day and age with food short - and that makes it feel like a bad season , ” he ages and supply shortages , ” Shields says . “ It’s always explains . good to have those initial preparations done early But he does note that weather tends to and hurricane kits ready so you don’t have to worry follow patterns , and recent years have seen hurricanes veering west to pummel other states bordering the Gulf about it . ” of Mexico or making landfall along the northern American coast . After all , there is a difference between panicking “ Last year — and what feels like the last few years — everything has been going after Louisiana , it seems and planning ahead . It’s always better to have a plan like , ” says Shields . “ Sometimes you get stuck in these weather patterns where storms develop and go in the of action and not need it than to need one and be 42 ORLANDO FAMILY june 2022 ORLANDOFAMILYMAGAZINE.COM