Orlando Southwest - Issue #4 (June 2021)

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OFM_Dept_0621 - Weather - SWEST - v2 - FINAL_DEPT 5 / 24 / 21 1 : 44 PM Page 1 statistics it employs to determine how a hurri - cane season compares to the 30 - year average , ensuring it’s utilizing the most recent data avail - W E A T H E R able while also accounting for any anomalies . The 2021 season means the administration will now use data gathered from 1991 - 2020 as its new 30 - year period of record . It’s also worth noting improved sophistication of weather tech - nology has allowed for more accuracy , too , and the improvement of observational platforms has ‘ It Just Takes also contributed to increasing — and increasingly correct — predictions . “ This update allows our meteorologists to make forecasts for the hurricane season with the One Storm ’ most relevant climate statistics taken into con - sideration , ” says Michael Farrar , director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Disturbance with the poteN - The 2021 Atlantic Prediction . “ Our work illustrates the value of tial to become the year’s first NOAA’s investments in next - generation tech - hurricane season named tropical storm developed A nologies to capture the data that underpins our in the Atlantic Ocean days before the looks to be more outlooks and other forecast products . These prod - National Oceanic and Atmospheric active than usual , ucts are essential to providing the public and Administration ( NOAA ) formally issued local emergency managers with advance infor - its predictions for the 2021 hurricane even with national mation to prepare for storms , and achieving season . 30 - year averages NOAA’s mission of protecting life and property . ” The National Hurricane Center ( NHC ) , the The seasonal average for major hurricanes — Florida - based division of NOAA / National Weather increasing ahead storms reaching Category 3 , 4 or 5 , meaning Service dedicated to tracking and predicting the of its onset . they sustain at least 111 mph winds and assure region’s tropical weather systems , began issuing its devastating damage — was previously 12 named regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15 , two By Madeleine Maccar storms , six hurricanes and three major hurri - weeks earlier than it typically has in the past . canes based on the previous 1981 - 2010 period . And meteorological experts are already predicting While the new model still holds at three major that this season , just like the past few years , should be another one of increased activity . hurricanes , the updated averages have increased But those same atmospheric authorities say that while a little extra precaution is never a bad to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes . thing , there’s no need to panic . Seasonal forecasts strive to be as accurate as possible , but they are “ These updated averages better reflect our still predictions — not promises . collective experience of the past 10 years , which Even so , as a response to the past six years seeing named storms forming before the conventionally included some very active hurricane seasons , ” accepted hurricane season has commenced , NHC announced it will continue to dispatch its says Matt Rosencrans , seasonal hurricane fore - weather outlooks mid - May from here on out . caster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center . “ To provide more consistent information on the potential for late May and early June systems , “ NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of NHC will now begin the routine issuance of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m . climate change on tropical cyclones and deter - EDT on May 15 , ” it announced in a statement earlier this spring . mined that it can influence storm intensity . Fur - That’s not the only change this year ushers in . Once every decade , NOAA updates the set of ther research is needed to better understand and attribute the impacts of anthropogenic forcings and natural variability on tropical storm activity . ” And even with those revised updates , 2021 is still looking to be an active year , with fore - casters anticipating 13 to 20 named storms , and potentially six to 10 of those becoming hurri - canes , including three to five major ones . Addi - tionally , according to its May 20 predictions , NOAA officials believe there is a 60 % chance of an above - normal season , a 30 % chance of a near - normal season and a 10 % chance of hur - ricane season being below normal — though offi - m cials agree that 2021 is unlikely to see the activity ck.co 2020 did , depleting the season’s storm names tersto and restoring to Greek letters for identification . Shut The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs / ont from June 1 through Nov . 30 , though it’s not Delim Aftermath of a hard - and - fast window . A major storm can a Hurricane Irma nit develop at any time if the conditions are right . a in 2017 , Lake Eola D by Among those contributing factors are ocean Heights Photo temperatures , which are steadily increasing with 48 ORLANDO FAMILY june 2021 ORLANDOFAMILYMAGAZINE.COM

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OFM_Dept_0621 - Weather - SWEST - v2 - FINAL_DEPT 5 / 24 / 21 4 : 02 PM Page 2 climate change . This year , a comparatively weaker La Niña pattern also prevented the cooling cycle from having any significant impact , as warmer water fuels storms ’ intensity . Brian Shields , a WFTV meteorologist , says that “ while the hype machine is real and there are some folks out there who want to take every storm that develops and make it seem like it’s coming right for your house , ” that doesn’t mean the residents of Orlando and the rest of Florida need to worry , at least not yet . “ It looks to be a really active season , ” he confirms . “ The catch is , there could be a million storms in the Atlantic but none of them could hit land , or there could be just a couple and just one of them does . This one looks above average , and that does generally increase your odds of having a storm nearby , but it doesn't mean you’re guaranteed to get hit by one . ” But longtime residents know that the most dangerous hurricane is the one for which the warnings go unheeded , like when developing storms are dismissed in the midst of a relatively quieter season , or the region is simply taken by surprise . “ It just takes one storm , ” Shields notes . “ Back in the early ’ 90s when Hurricane Andrew hit , that was actually during a milder season when there were only a few named storms . But that turned out to be one of the most devas - tating hurricanes we’ve ever seen . ” Those who are concerned can take some steps to mitigate that fear , as Shields is heartily in favor of packing emergency hurricane kits to weather both the storm and its aftermath . “ This is Florida , so you need to take pre - cautions , ” says Shields . “ There’s a million num - bers , a whole bunch of information and all these spaghetti graphs being thrown at you when you’re in the storm’s path , which is why it’s so important to prepare when cooler heads are still prevailing . A hurricane is loud , it’s going to last for a long time , you’re going to be without power , you might be cut off from everything . ” Adrienne Cutway of News 6 compiled a list of crucial supplies for hurricane survivors , including the idea of purchasing pre - made kits to ensure nothing goes unforgotten even in the most level - headed packing conditions , especially if you’re packing for children and pets who rely on their caregivers to plan ahead for them . “ Every Floridian should have a hurricane kit stashed somewhere in their home , even if a storm isn’t forecast to hit — we all know the cone can shift without notice no matter how accurate predictive technology is , ” she says . “ While making a survival kit isn’t difficult , you could forget an item or two that could be essen - tial in the aftermath of a hurricane . By choosing a pre - made kit , you know you’ll have all the items you need , sometimes even in surplus . ” A hurricane go - bag should include every - thing from important documents like birth cer - tificates and insurance documents , as well as ORLANDOFAMILYMAGAZINE.COM june 2021 ORLANDO FAMILY 49

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